Here’s How Potential Nor’Easter, Lake Effect Snow, Will Impact Central New York

For a second year in a row, Central New York could enjoy a white Thanksgiving.

Millions of Americans planning to travel over the long holiday weekend, but now all eyes are on a potential system that could snarl airports and roads across the Northeast.

In a possible 1-2 punch to Central New York, forecasts warned the area could see a Nor'easter on Thanksgiving and a string of lake effect snow immediately after it.

The Weather Service issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the region, which says:

We are monitoring the potential for winter weather to impact the region Wednesday night through Thanksgiving and into Friday. Details on timing, location and strength of this system remain very uncertain at this time.

This particular weather event has been tricky to nail down, which is why the NWS encourages "everyone to monitor the forecast, especially if traveling for the holiday."

The Latest from the National Weather Service

Here's the good news: while Thanksgiving may be white, it seems we won't be buried in snow.

Ben Lott, a meteorologist at NWS Binghamton, revealed what the models are currently saying about Thursday:

Our forecast currently has little to no snow accumulation for Utica though up to an inch cannot be ruled out. With temperatures around and above freezing, as long as roads are treated, they will probably be just wet.

If there were to be any travel impacts, it would be during the morning hours, especially for anyone travelling south.

The current NWS forecast is calling for mostly rain in the Utica area on Thanksgiving, with snow showers mixing in later that night. Accumulation totals are expected to be around less than an inch.

Meanwhile, Boonville could see light snow Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning. The weather should change to all snow through Thursday night and the NWS is calling for roughly 3 inches when it's all said and done.

Areas north of Port Leyden will see a little less snow, with the NWS saying about 2 inches will dust the area over Thanksgiving.

This should also bring a sigh of relief to those planning to fly out around Thanksgiving since the report indicates travelers might not encounter any significant delays.

Now that Thanksgiving's weather appears to be set, all eyes are now on the upcoming lake effect snow following immediately after the Nor'easter and what that could mean for the region.

The NWS had even more good news for the Utica area.

Said Lott, "After the Thanksgiving storm, there will be additional lake effect snow. Most of that will be east of Lake Ontario and will have little to no impact on our region until sometime Sunday."

However, other areas are under a winter storm watch starting Friday afternoon through Monday morning. These areas include Lewis, Jefferson, and Oswego County.

The NWS warns:

The potential exists for a significant long duration lake effect snow event. There is considerable uncertainty in exact band placement and amounts, but multiple periods of heavy snow are possible. Travel could be very difficult to impossible with very poor visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Some major roadways could temporarily close.

The NWS is watching for narrow bands of heavy snow that could bring "rapidly changing road conditions" from between Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Arctic Blast Bringing More Chances of Lake Effect Snow Next Week

Lott warned the Utica area could see a shift in the weather come Sunday. However, it is still too far out to determine exact snowfall amounts.

Lake effect snow is difficult to predict far in advance because its path depends on wind flow. So, the slightest change in its direction could alter its entire course.

Mark Pellerito, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at NWS Binghamton, told WIBX:

While the potential for a generally favorable lake effect pattern can be anticipated many days in advance, modeling of specific bands and locations is much more difficult because the influential small scale details are not resolvable until close to the event.

In the meantime, while people are urged to dust off their shovels, they are also encouraged to break out the heavy winter jackets.

An arctic blast is heading our way, which will bring temperatures below freezing.

Pellerito said models indicate the cold snap will move into the area after Thanksgiving and will begin to intensify over the weekend.

So how long will this cold air last?

Max Velocity, who runs the Severe Weather Center, warns it could stick around for over a week. That means the risk of lake effect snow will remain in play.

What Current Weather Models Say about Snowfall Amounts

Velocity, using the Global Forecasting System (GFS), says the arctic air means lake effect snow could be in the forecast into next week.

Emphasizing that the readings are still "very early" and could change, he highlighted that a potion of Upstate New York could receive significant snowfall.

The map indicates the hotspot forms between Watertown and Oswego; meaning  Lowville and Old Forge could take a direct hit.

The GFS Model even puts out there an 82" reading of snowfall as we go into early next week.

While seeing nearly 7 feet of snow sounds daunting, Velocity says there is still uncertainty in the forecast because even the slightest shift in the wind could change things entirely.

While we are awaiting exact snowfall amounts, the Weather Channel's 10-day forecast for Utica includes snowfall every day past Sunday.

Wednesday, Nov 27: Partly cloudy skies with a high around 42. Rain developing overnight
Thursday, Nov 28: Overcast with scattered rain and snow showers with a high around 38
Friday, Nov 29: Variable snow showers, especially in the PM, with highs around 38. Current models call for a 50% of snow
Saturday, Nov 30: Partly overcast, perhaps a few flurries in the PM with highs around 34
Sunday, Dec 1: Becoming gradually more cloudy throughout the day and a 40% chance of snow falling in the PM, with a high around 31
Monday, Dec 2: Less than an inch of snow possible, high 31
Tuesday, Dec 3: Snow likely, high 31.
Wednesday, Dec 4: PM snow showers, high 31
Thursday, Dec 5: Overcast with flurries possible, high 28
Friday, Dec 6: Snow showers, about an inch expected; high 30
Saturday, Dec 7: AM snow showers possible, high 27
Sunday, Dec 8: Snow showers, high 27
Monday, Dec 9: AM snow showers, high 32
Tuesday, Dec 10: Snow showers, high 30

The National Weather Service will be calling into Keeler in the Morning on WIBX around 7:20 tomorrow morning to provide the latest weather update.

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