Move Over Phil, New York’s Groundhog Has Better Accuracy

Every year Americans turn to an elite group of furry forecasters to predict the arrival of spring. Groundhog Day, first celebrated in 1886, has since evolved beyond Punxsutawney Phil to include a variety of weather-predicting animals across the country—including a duck, an alligator, and even a fish! But when it comes to accuracy, how do these groundhogs really measure up?

Using data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, these are how the 19 groundhogs (and alternative predictors) rank based on their accuracy over the past 20 years. Each contestant had to be actively predicting as of 2024 and have at least two decades of forecasts under their belt. Their results were then compared against March temperature averages in the U.S. from 2005 to 2024.

The Top Three Most Accurate Groundhogs

1st Place: Staten Island Chuck (85% Accuracy)

Hailing from the Staten Island Zoo in New York, Staten Island Chuck—also known as Charles G. Hogg—boasts the best accuracy rate of any groundhog in the nation. His forecasts have been right 85% of the time, earning him the top spot. Though his predictions are trustworthy, his temperament can be unpredictable—just ask the former mayor of New York City, who once got a little too close!

Read More: New Yorkers Can Now Claim Pet Tax: What You Need To Know

2nd Place: General Beauregard Lee (80% Accuracy)

Georgia’s official weather prognosticator, General Beauregard Lee, resides in Weathering Heights, his custom-built groundhog mansion at Dauset Trails Nature Center. With a solid accuracy rate of 80%, he has earned the reputation of a southern gentleman of meteorology—and an alleged fan of hashbrowns.

3rd Place: Lander Lil (75% Accuracy)

Unlike the others on this list, Lander Lil isn’t a live groundhog but a bronze statue of a prairie dog in Lander, Wyoming. Her shadow at sunrise determines whether winter will linger. Modeled after a real prairie dog, she once vanished in 2001, only to be found at the town dump and triumphantly returned to her rightful place outside the post office.

Groundhog Accuracy Rankings

Special Mention: Punxsutawney Phil

While he’s the most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil has a surprisingly low accuracy rate of just 35%. However, he holds the title for the longest-running weather predictor in the U.S., having been a fixture of Groundhog Day since 1887. According to local lore, he stays forever young thanks to an annual sip of “groundhog nog” at the Punxsutawney Groundhog Picnic.

Happy Groundhog Day!